- Lots of information, disinformation and misinformation going around
– People are scared
- Hard to know what value we can add?
– Are we just making more noise?
- The first thing I want to talk about it Philosophy
- Block theory of the universe
- Atoms are effectively immortal
- Your “life” is an illusion
- No more real than the characters in a comic book
- It’s just a story you tell yourself
– Change the story
- As for the virus and the panic
- be careful of the sources you turn to
- Like we said in the vaccination series:
– Who do you trust and why?
- For something like this, I turn to Bill Gates and the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford
- Chrissy likes Zubin Damania, MD, ZDOGGMD on YouTube.
- Choose your sources carefully.
– Keep in mind that the media is all about drama and sells attention for a living
- Then Look at the data yourself
- When it comes to the big question – am I going to die – well the answer is YES
- Everyone is going to die.
- As for COVID, there are three ratios we need to be aware of.
– I keep reading in the media that the coronavirus’s death rate was an estimated 3.4%
- Case Fatality Rate, Infected Fatality Rate and Mortality Rate.
- CFR – is the number of reported deaths per number of reported cases
- IFR is how many people who are infected with the virus, including those who don’t develop symptoms, will die.
- MR is how many people out of the entire population will die from the virus.
- Let’s say the population consists of 1,000 people; 500 get infected. 100 of these people have the disease, and 3 of those die from the disease.
- In this case, the mortality rate for the disease is 3 in 1000 = 0.003
- The case fatality rate is 3 in 100 = 0.03
– The infection fatality rate is 3 in 500 = .006
- One problem with COVID is that Between countries, case Fatality rates vary significantly, and over time, which suggests considerable uncertainty over the exact case fatality rates. https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
- Ranging from 0.30% in Austria to 12.50% in San Marino, the tiny country in the middle of northern Italy
- Italy’s has had a lot of deaths.
- But on 20 March, Scientific Adviser to Italy’s Minister of Health advised that all those who die in hospitals with Coronavirus will be included in the death numbers.
- Apparently most of them died from other pre-existing problems – but as they happened to be infected with COVID, they were classified as COVID fatalities.
- “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
- They were also all much older than, say, the cases in China
- “The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older – the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120443722/coronavirus-is-covid19-really-the-cause-of-all-the-fatalities-in-italy
– Comparison with Swine Flu
- The overall case fatality rate as of 16 July 2009 (10 weeks after the first international alert) with pandemic H1N1 influenza varied from 0.1% to 5.1% depending on the country.
- The WHO reported in 2019 that swine flu ended up with a fatality rate of 0.02%. (CEBM)
- Diamond Princess:
- Only 712 out of the 3,711 (~20%) passengers and crew (average age 58) on the Diamond Princess have tested positive for the virus.
- Around half were asymptomatic.
- Only 8 (~1% – corrected) have died.
- IFR 8 / 712 = 0.01
- And they were old.
- A third of the passengers were 70-79. About 6% were over 80.
- In Australia, only 6% of our pop is 70-79, about 2% of our pop is over 80. Australian population by age
- So the average age of the ship was far older.
- All deaths occurred in patients > 70.
- No one under 70 died. Source: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/diamond_cruise_cfr_estimates.html
- One analysis is that 2 million Americans are already infected.
- An infection takes around 23-24 days to resolve.
- The first 5-6 days the patient doesn’t show any symptoms.
- It takes an average of 5 days between the onset of symptoms and hospitalization.
- Finally it takes about 2 weeks between hospitalization and death (about 10 days in ICU).
- On March 19th, the U.S. reported a total of 205 deaths.
- That figure was 85 on March 16th and 47 on March 13th.
- This means the number of deaths doubles about every 3 days.
- This also means that the number of infections is doubling every 3 days
- If the IFR is 1%, that means for every death there are 100 infections.
- The number of infected people doubles every 3 days.
- If there were 205 deaths on March 19, it means that three weeks before that – Feb 29 – there were 100 times as many infections.
- 20,500 infections
- Which has been doubling every three days.
- So unless the lockdown have helped, there should be 2.5-5.5 million infected in the US by now.
– If those numbers are correct, there could be 20,000 – 50,000 American deaths within the next few weeks.
- In Australia we’ve had 7 deaths, we means we probably have 90,000 – 100,000 infected.
- A thousand Australian deaths.
– U.S. health officials briefed lawmakers in Congress and said they believe the case fatality rate in this country will most likely be in the range of 0.1 to 1.0 percent, meaning somewhere between one of every thousand and one of every hundred people with covid-19 will die.
- That would make covid-19 closer in lethality to influenza in severe or pandemic flu seasons, according to an article in the New England Journal of Medicine co-authored by Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The article states that the true fatality rate of covid-19 “may be considerably less” than 1 percent, and “may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”
- To put that in perspective:
Leading Causes of Death
Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death
- Heart disease: 647,457
- Cancer: 599,108
- Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
- Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
- Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
- Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
- Diabetes: 83,564
- Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
- Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
- Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
- 1.7 million people die every year
- Worst case scenario – COVID doubles that – 1%
- Mostly people over 70
- The average age of the Democratic House leadership is 72 years old, whereas the average age of Republican House leadership is 48 years old.
- The average age is 47
- But what happens if the leaders are all in lockdown? Or large numbers of them die?
- What are the questions that aren’t being asked?
- What isn’t being talked about?
- And what’s going to happen from here?
- World’s #1 economy.
- Been through the whole trade war and propaganda war with the US in recent times.
- Now the US economy is shot.
- As is the rest of the Western world.
- A million or more Americans could die.
- If you were China, what would you be thinking?
- Seems to me like they might be in the same position the US was in after WWII.
- Last man standing.
- Chinese Marshall Plan?
- Listen – we’ll bail you out – but here’s what we want in return.
- Yuan as the new reserve currency.
– Communist parties in all of your countries.
- Trump’s approval rating continues to be strong. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
- What happens if the country is in lockdown in November?
- Will the elections go ahead?
- A trio of federal laws set Election Day for presidential electors, senators, and US representatives as “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.”
- Can only be changed by Congress.
- Which would require the Democratic House to approve it.
- There is apparently some mechanism by which the states could get the electoral colleges to cast their votes for President without a popular vote.
- But it’s messy.
- But if Trump’s term expires and there’s no election – then what happens?
- My worry is that the US is already so fraught with tension, it’s a tinder box, that anything could set off chaos.
- A guy in Texas shoots another guy over the last roll of toilet paper in a Walmart.
- That starts happening all over the place.
- States call in the National Guard to restore order.
- A number of states have already called in the National Guard. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-national-guard.html
- Trump on Sunday announced that he has activated the National Guard in California, New York and Washington https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/trump-activates-national-guard-in-california-new-york-and-washington-state-to-fight-coronavirus-outbreak.html
– Trump has already declared he is “I’m a wartime president,” Trump said. “This is a war — a different kind of war than we’ve ever had.”
- Can Trump declare Martial Law?
- Martial law is an order imposed by the government of direct military control of the United States civilization, in response to a temporary emergency such as invasion or major disaster.
- Not spelled “Marshall”, as Marco Rubio seems to think.
- under martial law, the military would have the responsibility of enforcing order, keeping the peace, and ensuring the state remains functioning.
- Article 1, Section 9 of the US Constitution states, “The Privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it.”
- habeas corpus, which is in essence the right to a hearing on lawful imprisonment, or more broadly, the supervision of law enforcement by the judiciary.
- martial law suspends all existing laws, as well as civil authority and the ordinary administration of justice.
- In the United States, martial law may be declared by proclamation of the President or a State governor, but such a formal proclamation is not necessary.
- Although the U.S. Constitution makes no specific provision for the imposition of martial law, nearly every State has a constitutional provision authorizing the government to impose martial law.
- The power of martial law, once held to be nearly absolute, has limitations; for example, civilians may not be tried by military tribunals as long as civilian courts are functional.
- Nonetheless, within the bounds of court decisions, a military commander’s authority under martial law is virtually unlimited.
- Martial law has been declared nine times since World War II and, in five instances, was designed to counter resistance to Federal desegregation decrees in the South. https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/Publications/abstract.aspx?ID=120638
– According to Newsweek: Above-Top Secret contingency plans already exist for what the military is supposed to do if all the Constitutional successors are incapacitated. Standby orders were issued more than three weeks ago to ready these plans, not just to protect Washington but also to prepare for the possibility of some form of martial law.
- According to new documents and interviews with military experts, the various plans – codenamed Octagon, Freejack and Zodiac – are the underground laws to ensure government continuity. They are so secret that under these extraordinary plans, “devolution” could circumvent the normal Constitutional provisions for government succession, and military commanders could be placed in control around America.
- America had better learn who Gen. Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy is.
- Air Force General O’Shaughnessy is NORTHCOM’s commander.
- NORTHCOM, a military authority created in the aftermath of September 11, 2001, with the aim of ‘defending America’s homeland — protecting our people, national power, and freedom of action’.
– On February 1, Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper signed orders directing NORTHCOM to execute nationwide pandemic plans. Secretly, he signed Warning Orders (the WARNORD as it’s called) alerting NORTHCOM and a host of east coast units to “prepare to deploy” in support of potential extraordinary missions.
- O’Shaughnessy is the “combatant commander” for the United States and would in theory be in charge if Washington were eviscerated. That is, until a new civilian leader could be installed.
– three larger contingency plans:
- CONPLAN 3400, or the military’s plan for “homeland defense,” if America itself is a battlefield.
- CONPLAN 3500, “defense support of civil authorities,” where the military assists in an emergency short of armed attack on the nation.
- CONPLAN 3600, military operations in the National Capital Region and continuation of government, under which the most-secret plans to support continuity are nested.
- Note that Trump is already positioning COVID as a “Chinese virus”.
- Can he claim it’s an armed attack on the nation?
- Octagon, Freejack, and Zodiac – call upon various military units in Washington DC, North Carolina and eastern Maryland to defend government operations if there is a total breakdown. The seventh plan – codenamed Granite Shadow – lays out the playbook for extraordinary domestic missions that involve weapons of mass destruction.
- planners are looking at military response to urban violence as people seek protection and fight over food. And, according to one senior officer, in the contingency of the complete evacuation of Washington.
- Is this the end of Capitalism?
- Or just yet another example of its inherent weaknesses?
- The most successful capitalist country in history has just fallen over like a one-legged man at an ass-kicking party.
- GFC never really ended.
- US economy (and the global economy) has been propped up by cutting interest rates and QE.
- Quantitative Easing
- Barry & Stan
- Just means “printing money”
- Typical weapon central banks have to try to boost a lagging economy is to cut the cash rate
- Cheap money for banks
- They want the banks to lend that money out to businesses
- Which the businesses will spend to boost the economy
- Sometimes the banks don’t do that
- They don’t believe the economy is strong enough and the businesses might fail
- So instead the banks use the money to buy treasuries (gov bonds) which pay a 2% return, so they make a profit
- Borrow money at 0.25% and get 2% return
- So the tool fails to boost the economy
- So they turn to QE
- The central banks print new money
- And use it to buy bad debts from the banks
- Giving the banks FREE new money to loan out
- Takes the pressure off the banks
- The central banks also buy gov treasuries
- Which makes the yield on the treasuries go down
- Supply and demand
- If the gov can sell all of their bonds at 2% to the central banks, they will pay a lower interest rate to the commercial banks that want to buy them
- Which makes them less attractive to the banks
- And the theory is they will then loan it out to the market to get a better return
- Compare the response to climate change
- Hundreds of millions of young people might die in 30 years?
- Oh no, we can’t do anything about it that might affect the economy, Besides a fringe scientist somewhere said it might not be true.
- To: FUCK THE ECONOMY UP THE ASS – old white people are dying! Fuck waiting for the science! Do something now!
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