ANTIVAX 4.3
April 18, 2019
ANTIVAX 4.5
May 11, 2019
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We’re still breaking down antivax claim number 2 from last time and dealing with the claims that

“Whenever the outbreaks are examined more closely, the data show that the majority of those suffering have been vaccinated for the disease. Disease charts show that diseases were mostly eliminated prior to the creation of vaccinations. What is truly responsible for most communicable disease elimination is clean water and improved sanitation.”
 
Full shownotes below.
 
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  • Last time we dealt with immunity. 
  • Let’s talk about measles.
  • The measles virus is one of the most infectious diseases known to man.
  • A person with measles can cough in a room and leave, and hours later, if you’re unvaccinated, you could catch the virus from the droplets in the air the infected person left behind.
  • No other virus can do that.
  • According to the CDC, as many as one out of every 20 children with measles gets pneumonia, the most common cause of death from measles in young kids.
  • About one out of every 1,000 children with measles will develop swelling of the brain, which can lead to convulsions and leave the child deaf or with an intellectual disability.
  • For every 1,000 children who get the disease, the CDC estimated one or two will die from it.
  • According to the CDC:
  • Very few people—about three out of 100—who get two doses of measles vaccine will still get measles if exposed to the virus.
  • Experts aren’t sure why.
  • It could be that their immune systems didn’t respond as well as they should have to the vaccine.
  • But the good news is, fully vaccinated people who get measles are much more likely to have a milder illness.
  • And fully vaccinated people are also less likely to spread the disease to other people, including people who can’t get vaccinated because they are too young or have weakened immune systems.
  • Before the measles vaccination program started in 1963, about 3 to 4 million people got measles each year in the United States.
  • Of those people, 400 to 500 died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 4,000 developed encephalitis (brain swelling) from measles.
  • In 2018, in the USA, do you know how many cases were reported? 
  • 349.
  • Down from 3-4 million in a half century ago. 
  • But numbers are on the rise again.
  • A few years ago there was a measles outbreak in California connected to Disneyland.
  • This is one case that antivaxxers like to point at.
  • 125 people infected. Or 131. Or 159. I’ve read different numbers. 
  • 100 from California. 
  • The leading theory is that measles was introduced in Disneyland by a foreign tourist.
  • According to the CDC:
  • Among the 110 California patients, only 49 (45%) were unvaccinated;
  • So wait – that means that 55% of the people who got measles, the majority, were vaccinated?
  • Not quite. 
  • 5% had 1 dose of the measles vaccine. 
  • 2 is recommended for maximum immunity. 
  • So that means 50% were either unvaccinated or didn’t have enough vaccinations. 
  • Only 7% of the people who got measles had 2 or more doses.
  • What about the other 42%?
  • They had unknown or undocumented vaccination status.  
  • So only 7% of the people who contracted the disease were known to be fully vaccinated. 
  • In 2011 there was an outbreak of measles started by someone who was fully vaccinated.
  • So it can happen. 
  • but this was a very big deal because it was the first time it had ever been reported as happening!
  • According to the CDC
  • During 2011, a provisional total of 222 measles cases were reported from 31 states.
  • Most patients were unvaccinated (65%) or had unknown vaccination status (21%).
  • So this argument that “Whenever outbreaks are examined more closely, the data show that the majority of those suffering have been vaccinated for the disease” is not supported by the evidence I saw. 
  • Five on the BS meter. 
 
  • BTW, there’s a measles outbreak happening in the US at the moment. 
  • the number of new cases has climbed to its highest level in 25 years.
  • about 700 cases have been reported
  • Even Trump is telling people to get vaccinated. 
  • And he’s made antivax type statements in the past. 
  • most heavily affected are Orthodox Jewish communities in NY, in which vaccination rates tend to be lower.
  • only 72.9 per cent of people under 18 have been vaccinated against measles
  • The outbreak began in the Rockland County of NY area when seven unvaccinated travellers diagnosed with measles entered the county last October.
  • There have been nearly 200 cases reported to date.
  • But the authorities there think the actual number is likely higher.
  • Health officials in Rockland County have issued an emergency declaration to combat the measles outbreak.
  • Rockland County has barred unvaccinated children from public places for 30 days.
  • Rockland residents are already getting knocks on the door and delivery of notices that say unvaccinated people exposed to measles must stay away from indoor and outdoor public places for 21 days or face $2,000 fines.
  • But a judge put the ban on hold, agreeing with parents of unvaccinated children at a particular school, Green Meadow Waldorf School, claimed that missing school was causing them financial hardship and no cases of measles had been discovered at their particular school
  • based on the Waldorf curriculum
  • making waldorf salads
  • Steiner
  • One of the parents in the lawsuit: “We are NOT against vaccinations. We believe that GOD created the body, and it should remain untainted by man.”
  • Another parent: “Since for us the blood is the carrier of the soul, injections of vaccine-substances, often animal or embryo derived, are strictly forbidden.”
  • I think this new emergency declaration gets around the judge’s ruling because the original emergency declaration expired
  • There have also been hundreds of other cases around NY. 
  • In NY, Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a public health emergency that would require unvaccinated individuals living in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, to receive the measles vaccine.
  • The mayor said the city would issue violations and possibly fines of $1,000 for those who did not comply.
  • People there also tried to stop it via the courts, but this time the judge ruled in favour of the city. 
  • Also linked to the ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities and is associated with travelers who brought back measles from Israel, where the disease is spreading.
  • Apparently a slick 40-page booklet being distributed throughout the Orthodox communities in New York and New Jersey about the dangers of vaccines.
  • The booklet was created by a group called PEACH, or Parents Educating and Advocating for Children’s Health.
  • The booklet is directly aimed at the Orthodox community, partly written in Hebrew and filled with snippets from the Torah, or Old Testament.
  • Yet local Orthodox Jewish leadership has made it clear that there is nothing in Jewish law that prohibits vaccinations.
  • In fact, it’s the opposite.
  • It says in the Torah that a person must guard their health.
  • also ongoing measles outbreaks in Washington, New Jersey, and California.
  • According to the CDC, all of these outbreaks are linked to travelers who brought measles back from other countries such as Israel, Ukraine, and the Philippines, where large measles outbreaks are occurring.
  • While vaccines are required for school children across the country, almost all states allow exemptions for families who say it’s against their religious beliefs, and 17 states allow a parent to opt out for philosophical or personal reasons.
  • Measles is on the rise in Europe. 
  • In 2018, Europe recorded more than 82,000 cases, a record high in the post-vaccine era.
  • In 2017, measles killed 110,000 people worldwide, mostly children under age 5.
 
SANITATION
  • Let’s look at this argument about clean water and sanitation. 
  • they are great things
  • Ray – nobody knows more about medicine that you
  • explain the difference between bacteria and virus
  • bacteria – single-celled microorganisms
  • mostly good
  • 1% bad
  • virus
  • invades some of your cells and takes over the cell machinery
  • It’s like a nanobot designed to make you sick my turning your cells into something else
  • Unlike bacteria, viruses can’t survive without a host.
  • They can only reproduce by attaching themselves to cells.
  • In most cases, they reprogram the cells to make new viruses until the cells burst and die.
  • In other cases, they turn normal cells into malignant or cancerous cells.
  • Throughout history, millions of people have died  from both bacteria and viruses
  • eg bubonic plague or the Black Death, is caused by Yersinia pestis bacteria
  • smallpox is caused by the variola virus
  • In recent times, viral infections have been responsible for two major pandemics: the 1918-1919 “Spanish flu” epidemic that killed 20-40 million people, and the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic that killed an estimated 1.5 million people worldwide in 2013 alone.
  • You treat bacterial infections with antibiotics
  • B for Bacteria and Biotics 
  • You pre-emptively treat viruses with vaccinations
  • V for Virus and Vaccination
  • Once you get a virus, there’s isn’t much you can do about it
  • Bacterial and viral infections can cause similar symptoms such as coughing and sneezing, fever, inflammation, vomiting, diarrhea, fatigue, and cramping — all of which are ways the immune system tries to rid the body of infectious organisms.
  • So back to why people started getting less diseases 
  • Better nutrition, not to mention the development of antibiotics and other treatments, have increased survival rates among the sick
  • When antivaxxers talk about the benefits of sanitation, they often point to the decline in deaths before vaccinations. 
  • Deaths is not the same as incidence, catching the disease. 
  • Sulfonamide antimicrobial agents in 1937. 
  • But my understanding is a LOT of this was also antitoxins, fight bacteria, in the late 19th century, and antibiotics in the mid 20th century.
  • Guess who made those products? 
  • OH NO – BIG PHARMA AGAIN! 
  • Let’s all stop taking antibiotics! 
  • But antibiotics didn’t really kick off until the 1940s. 
  • Aussie Howard Florey at Oxford published a paper talking about how you would purify penicillin for clinical testing, and it exploded. 
  • Alexander Fleming accidentally discovered penicillin in 1928. 
  • Also less crowded living conditions have reduced disease transmission;
  • and lower birth rates have decreased the number of susceptible household contacts.
  • But let’s look at measles.
  • The real, permanent drop in measles incidence coincided with the licensure and wide use of measles vaccine beginning in 1963.
  • Deaths were already dropping from the things we mentioned before. 
  • Largely antibiotics. 
  • A lot of people who died from measles, actually died from secondary diseases – pneumonia, strep, influenza, etc. 
  • Pneumonia is the most common severe complication of measles and accounts for most measles-associated deaths.
  • The most common cause of bronchopneumonia is a bacterial lung infection
  • Streptococcus pneumonia
  • It was discovered in 1881 by French microbiologist, Louis Pasteur, and American microbiologist, George Sternberg, independently
  • During the late 1800s and early 1900s, pneumonia was the leading cause of death due to infectious disease and the third leading cause of death overall.
  • Something called antiserum therapy began in the early 1900s.
  • Where you take some blood containing antibodies and inject it into people
  • and by 1913, antipneumococcal serum therapy, if given early in disease progression, was able to reduce mortality from 25% to 7.%.
  • However, this treatment method was slow, costly, and time-consuming.
  • In the 1930s, the first antibacterial agent, sulfapyridine, was introduced.
  • Although sulfapyridine gained a lot of notoriety when it was used to treat Winston Churchill’s bacterial pneumonia in 1942, this agent was quickly set aside upon the discovery of the antibiotic penicillin in the early 1940s.
  • So when you look at the graphs the antivaxxers use, you’ll see DEATHS started to drop off in the early 1900s
  • So the arrival of antibioitics – BIG PHARMA! – in the early 20th century reduced the death toll. 
  • Diphtheria 
  • Diphtheria is an acute infectious disease of humans that affects the upper respiratory tract
  • Kills by asphixyation
  • bacterium that causes diphtheria ws discovered in 1883
  • Just to point out the devastation that diphtheria caused, in 1883, the diphtheria death rate was 125 per 100,000 people in New York City
  • Then in the 1890s, they developed the diphtheria antitoxin
  • A serum like I mentioned earlier 
  • Made by injecting diphtheria into horses and extracting the horse blood 
  • Unless you’re Charlie Sheen, then it has to be tiger blood 
  • By the end of 1942, only a third of all children under 15 years of age in England and Wales, and a half of all in Scotland had been vaccinated against diphtheria.
  • Cases remained high
  • Mortality was in decline, thanks to antitoxins and antibiotics, which is how you treat it 
  • During WWII in England, more child deaths resulted from diphtheria than from bombing (9,000 deaths from diphtheria versus 8,000 deaths from bombing).
  • It wasn’t until the passing of the National Health Service Acts of 1946-8, that the majority of children were vaccinated
  • And you can see the cases just drop off in the charts 
  • Other diseases show a roughly similar pattern in incidence.
  • Are we expected to believe that better sanitation caused incidence of each disease to drop just at the time a vaccine for that disease was introduced?
  • No – sanitation is a great thing but it didn’t stop diseases. 
  • Big Pharma stopped mortality from disease – first by antibioitics and antiserums to help people recover when they had already caught the disease. 
  • And then by preventing them from catching it in the first place. 
  • Finally, we can look at the experiences of several developed countries after they allowed their immunization levels to drop.
  • We’ve already seen what’s happening with measles in the US at the moment. 
  • And we can also look at what happened in Great Britain, Sweden and Japan when they cut back the use of pertussis (whooping cough) vaccine because of fear about the vaccine.
  • Whooping cough is nasty.
  • the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that in 2008 there were about 16 million cases of pertussis, and that about 195,000 children died from the disease.
  • In 2012 the UK experienced a nationwide outbreak (epidemic) of pertussis.
  • There were over 9,300 cases in England alone – more than ten times as many as in recent years.
  • A report from the United States noted that between 1940 and 1944, whooping cough accounted for more than twice as many childhood deaths as the combined total for measles, scarlet fever, diphtheria, polio, and meningococcal infections.
  • When these countries I mentioned stopped vaccinating their kids in the 70s, due to a misinformation campaign similar to the one the UK started around the MMR vaccine in the 90s, the effect was dramatic and immediate.
  • According to the WHO – In Great Britain, a drop in whooping cough vaccination in 1974 was followed by an epidemic of more than 100,000 cases and 36 deaths by 1978.
  • Although, it’s possible that some of that increase is due to greater awareness and media coverage. 
  • In Japan, around the same time, a drop in vaccination rates from 70% to 20%-40% led to a jump in whooping cough from 393 cases and no deaths in 1974 to 13,000 cases and 41 deaths in 1979.
  • A 3300% increase
  • In Sweden, the annual incidence rate of whooping cough per 100, 000 children of 0-6 years of age increased from 700 cases in 1981 to 3,200 in 1985.
  • a 500% increase
  • It seems clear from these experiences that if we were to stop vaccinating, these diseases would come back.
  • We might have a better chance of surviving them than people did 100 years ago. 
  • But who really wants to end up in hospital if you don’t have to? 
  • The cost to society is enough reason to avoid it. 
  • downtime, health costs, etc
  • There were also major epidemics of diphtheria in the former Soviet Union in the 1990s
  • After the fall of the USSR, there were low primary immunization rates for children and the lack of booster vaccinations for adults
  • It resulted in an increase from 839 cases in 1989 to nearly 50,000 cases and 1,700 deaths in 1994.
  • a 6000% increase
  • There’s the measles outbreak in New York that I mentioned earlier. 
  • Doesn’t NY have clean water and sanitation?
  • Well maybe not. This is America, after all. 
  • Now people do also say that the measles drop in 1963 had a lot to do with healthcare getting to the poor. 
  • might be some truth to that. 
  • but it’s a bit like the gun debate. 
  • gun violence has dropped in all developed countries over the last 30 years
  • even in America
  • So, people might say, why bother with gun laws? 
  • If you just leave it alone, other socioeconomic forces will take care of it. 
  • But as an Australian, I can say NO THANKS. 
  • Keep your guns. 
  • and keep infectious diseases away too thanks. 
  • I want my gun violence and my infectious diseases as low as possible thanks very much

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